May 11th, 2016

Presidential Advertising Hit Parade – April 2016 Political Ad Winners and Losers

Author

Ace Metrix

Political advertising is all over the airwaves, and if you ask American viewers, much of it is not very good. At Ace Metrix we have tested the 296 presidential campaign ads released so far this year (through April 30, 2016), with a demographically and regionally balanced sample of over 500 viewers across party lines that viewed and responded to the ads, and found the results confirmed that these ads are not very effective. The overall Ace Score norm for presidential ads since the beginning of the year (296 ads in total) is 448 – which is considerably lower than the overall Ace Score norm of 546 for commercial brands. People overall just don’t like political ads as much. However, there are some winners.

View the data in our April 2016 Presidential Advertising Hit Parade Infographic here

In the presidential ad race, average Ace Scores year-to-date by candidate show the best collective ad performances from John Kasich (514) and Bernie Sanders (510). However, while Kasich produced some solid ads, he aired far fewer than the others, and as of this writing, has dropped out of the race. Ted Cruz, on the other hand, lagged the pack, performing below norm – this candidate ran eleven ads scoring below 400 in 2016, including his last message airing on April 28th. He, too, has since dropped out of the race.

 

YTD thru April 30th   Norm 448
  # Ads % Ads Avg Ace
Kasich for America 6 2% 514
Bernie 2016 42 14% 510
Hillary for America 37 13% 468
Trump for President 11 4% 433
Super PACs 121 41% 432
Cruz for President 39 13% 424
Month: April 2016   Norm 482
  # Ads % Ads Avg Ace
Bernie 2016 10 24% 530
Hillary for America 11 26% 494
Super PACs 13 31% 452
Trump for President 3 7% 435
Cruz for President 5 12% 431
Kasich for America 0 0% N/A

 

The past 30 days saw 42 new political ads airing, with the Super PACs sponsoring nearly 30% of these messages. Trump, who has run only 4% of the presidential ads this year to date, did put three (below norm) ads in front of voters in April. Ad performance improved across the board in March but dipped again in April. The overall Ace Score presidential norm (482) for the current month still indicates an improved performance for more recent political ads vs the first two months of 2016.

Who’s winning the Presidential Campaign ’16 ad race so far?

The envelope, please…

Best Candidate: Bernie Sanders

Based on the average Ace Score across all ads put before the viewing public by each candidate during April, 2016, Bernie Sanders broke the 500 mark and soundly beat the norm to date (Ace Norm 448) with an average Ace of 510. John Kasich was the only other candidate to crack 500 (at 514), but his campaign has relied solely on PAC sponsored ads of late, and he has since dropped out of the race. (Note these campaign Ace Scores exclude such candidate PAC ads).

What’s interesting here is that Bernie Sanders has succeeded this month by airing highly effective ads focused on the money spent or paid by lobbyists and special interests to CEOs and politicians, while intimating that none of those funds are going the the “regular” or “powerless” people. However, Sanders is the biggest spender to date in Campaign ’16, and the money he is spending is coming out of the pockets of those “regular” Americans. Sanders reportedly raised $43.5 million in February, and $46 million in March (funding all the ads we viewed in April), the majority coming from small donors. With his fundraising dropping way off in April to just $25.8 million, could it be that voters are starting to see an irony here?

Best Overall Ad: Bernie 2016: “Wall Street Banks” and “Fairness” (tie)

This is the ad with the broadest appeal such that a wide array of voters rated it highly. Sanders took this honor with the top two highest scoring ads, both with an Ace Score of 566. The first, blasts “Wall Street Banks” for their lavish campaign contributions and speaking fees, revealing that Washington politicians earn $200,000 per hour for speeches but oppose raising the minimum wage “for all Americans” to $15 per hour.

In the second, Sanders questions the “Fairness” of a system where “the top 100 CEOs have more wealth for retirement than the bottom 100 million Americans.”

Most Watchable and Most Informative: Bernie 2016: “Danny Glover”

From the Sanders campaign, “Danny Glover” depicts the actor and political activist sharing his experience with segregation and why he feels Sanders is “with us” on economic justice. The visuals feature news footage of protests (including Sanders’ arrest at a Chicago rally) and the “poor people’s movement” built by Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. This ad was ranked the one viewers would most like to see again (Watchability Score: 594) and the ad that viewers indicated taught them something new vs. all the other political ads broadcast during the month of April (Learning Score: 643).

Most Attention Grabbing: Hillary for America: “Heroic :60”

Advertising can’t work if it doesn’t cause the viewer to stop and pay attention. Let’s face it, there’s a lot of chatter out there, and not just from political ads. Moreover, viewers have more choices than ever in terms of where they seek information and entertainment, and more ability to “turn off” within seconds from anything that doesn’t catch their fancy. With an Attention Score of 692, Hillary Clinton’s minute-long, emotional “Heroic” spot features the daughter of Sandy Hook principal, Dawn Hochsprung, bringing gun violence to life and stating that Clinton is the only candidate tough enough to take on the gun lobby and finally change things.

Most Agreeable and Most Relevant: Bernie 2016: “Fairness”

This first category recognizes the ad viewers found most amenable to their beliefs. Sanders found concurrence among Americans with this condemnation of the unbalanced wealth in America (Agreement Score: 642), in which he proposes the elimination of tax loopholes to make corporate CEOs pay their fair share. Stating that seniors deserve to remain independent and enjoy their grandchildren, Bernie declares it is time to bring back the American value of “Fairness.” With a Relevance Score of 636, this spot also ranked as the ad viewers across our nationally representative, balanced sample found most related to their lives and/or interests.

Most Credible and Most ‘Craving for More’: Bernie 2016: “Wall Street Banks”

Some ads preach at us, some ads rile us up, some ads entertain us. The ‘Craving for More’ category recognizes the ad that drove viewers to want to seek more information. It presented new information, or information in such as way as to leave voters wanting for more. “Wall Street Banks” (Seeking Information Score: 599) created that desire by suggesting America has a rigged economy of tax breaks and bailouts financed by a corrupt campaign finance system. The ad was also found by voters to be most believable of all ads broadcast last month (Credibility Score of 596).

Most Positive Impact: Bernie 2016: “Find a Way”

At Ace Metrix, we measure Impact by asking the question, “How does this ad change the likelihood that you will vote for this candidate?” Based on a sliding scale from 1-100, Impact scores that are closer to 100 indicate the ad had an influence on the voter’s likelihood to vote for the candidate. A score of 50 indicates no real strong influence either way. In this regard, Sanders had the strongest impact in April with his message (to New Yorkers) of finding a way to rebuild the middle class, create jobs, and offer every child equal opportunities. The visuals compare Bernie to another “native son of New York,” Franklin Delano Roosevelt. However, given an Impact Score of 56 (out of 100), this is good indication that all these political ads are doing a lot of talking but to little effect so far, at least in terms of swaying the vote. There is plenty of room for improvement here. (To be fair, some Impact scores have been more impressive among the relevant party faithful.)

Most Negative Impact: Cruz for President: “Jobs, Freedom, and Security”

Impact can also be negative – and this category recognizes the ad(s) that most influenced voters to be less likely to vote for the subject candidate. Negative/attack ads will often see Impact scores well below 50 as a result. In this category, Ted Cruz managed to rile voters with this spot featuring Carly Fiorina, announcing her reasons for joining him as running mate. The message backfired, with an Impact Score of 34, indicating the ad made voters less likely to vote for the subject candidate(s). Reviewing results by voting party, the ad bombed among both Democrats as well as Independents, while scoring barely at norm among party faithfuls. At this writing, Cruz has suspended his campaign.

Of particular note is the fact that no negative/attack ads made our April Hit Parade. At Ace Metrix, we test hundreds of ads on a weekly basis and read millions of viewer verbatims every year – including those for political ads. We can tell you that voters detest smear campaigns, blaming the messenger for being a negative, attacking candidate. Moreover, many of them will dig in their heels even more in their support for the candidate being smeared. So attack ads are risky. But they can be done effectively and with great impact, as Our Principles PAC managed with their anti-Trump “Quotes” ad in March. You ideally want an ad with strong Breakthrough, high Credibility based on verifiable facts, produced in a non-tabloid fashion, aired at a crucial point in the election cycle. Too many too soon, such as in this year’s presidential race, just wears voters down – and they tune out.

Summary

Top Ads by Component Measure – April 2016

HitParade2

Ace Metrix has tested thousands of ads since 2009 and has found that one consistent quality of top-performers is the ability to create some emotional reaction in the viewer. On our Hit Parade, many of the winners excel at this – who wouldn’t respond with emotion at instances of a daughter losing her mom too soon, or a man describing his experience with prejudice? What American hasn’t been affected in some way by the housing crisis or concern about their ability to retire comfortably? While it seems simple and rather obvious, there are far more political ads on the airwaves that neglect to speak to the audience’s interests and concerns. These winners do. Pushing an agenda or telling voters what they should believe never has and never will work in America. The messages that speak honestly and directly, whether through humor, compelling storytelling, or recitation of verifiable facts, on topics that the viewer cares about, are – no surprise – the top performers of Campaign ’16 for April.

See all the data in one snapshot and view the April Hit Parade Infographic here.

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