2013 was the biggest year in holiday advertising since we started tracking it in 2011. Will 2014 be another whiteout year? According to our data from last year, while Kmart debuted the first ad of the season (repeating that trend again this year), the next holiday ad didn’t debut until the first week of October, kicking off regular holiday ad appearances. While that trend has mostly continued, Coffee-Mate and Pier 1 Imports did air their holiday creative a few weeks ago, brining our holiday ad count up to three.
Looking forward to the end of December, we took a look back to make a few predictions on what the ads and data might look like this coming ho ho ho season.
Much like last year, Thanksgiving is unseasonably late this year, which means Black Friday will also be quite late—occurring on November 28th. Last year, our suspicions were confirmed that the date of Black Friday dictates much of when holiday ads air. While holiday ad volume has increased year-over-year since 2011, many advertisers use the date of Black Friday to figure out the best time to release their own Christmas-y creative. This year, we’ll likely see a similar trend—advertisers will judge when they want to release their spots based on the date of Black Friday.
For reference, we are currently a little over 40 days from Black Friday.
With Target’s new win under its belt, philanthropic-themed ads have already scored big this year. During last year’s holiday season, a total of six do-gooder ads aired. Of all the characteristics we looked for across every holiday-themed ad, philanthropic ads scored the highest—about 17% higher than the average holiday ad. So, have advertisers learned their lesson? We’re guessing they have. We’re looking forward to seeing which advertisers take a bite from the charitable cookie this year. No doubt, we’ll see Duracell air its tried-and-true philanthropic ad.
In an attempt to combat “showrooming” last holiday season, Best Buy embraced it, airing 11 ads in its “Your Ultimate Holiday Showroom” campaign. The holiday campaign was well received by consumers, with the average ad scoring 3% above the 2013 Retail holiday ad norm.
We’re guessing other retailers will step up in a similar fashion this year, encouraging people to shop in-stores with promotions or linking their online stores more closely with their brick-and-mortar locations. We’ve already seen retailers like Target and Walmart promote their online and mobile presence earlier this year.
Do you have a prediction you would like to test? Reach out to us! We have three years worth of holiday advertising data on hand and have already started watching and analyzing this year’s holiday creative.
